A Tale of Two Colleagues: Meehan Vs. Stollsteimer In 2012? Or Sestak?

It could be a battle royale between the two former prosecutors, but what about Joe Sestak?

Assistant District Attorney, Delaware County.

Assistant United States Attorney, Eastern District of Pennsylvania, specializing in prosecuting illegal firearms cases and violent drug offenders.

Governor-appointed Safe Schools Advocate for the School District of Philadelphia --- a position that was ultimately “eliminated” not for budgetary reasons, but because he publicly chastised the Governor and Department of Education for their willful failure to protect students.

Was often mentioned as a possible nominee for United States Attorney.

And now, this person is considering running for Congress as a strong get-tough-on crime candidate.

Such a resume would seem a great springboard for elected office, as law-and-order candidates have met with great success lately: Governors Tom Corbett and Chris Christie are former prosecutors, as are Pennsylvania Congressmen Tom Marino and Pat Meehan, as well as State Representative Todd Stephens.

But here’s where it gets interesting.  All the aforementioned politicians are Republicans, but this resume belongs to Jack Stollsteimer, a self-styled RFK Democrat who is strongly positioned to win his Party’s nomination in next year’s Seventh Congressional District race.  To claim the ultimate prize in November, he would have to beat not just a Republican, but his former U.S. Attorney boss, Rep. Pat Meehan.

But first things first. Will the path to the nomination be clear, or will a well-known Democrat with a history of success --- and unpredictability --- decide to throw his hat into the ring? And if so, when?

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The district, which includes most of Delaware County, parts of Chester County and a section of Montgomery, is traditionally perceived as Republican, because voter registration favors the GOP, and the Delaware County courthouse has long been controlled by the well-oiled Republican Machine.

But while Republicans hold a majority of offices throughout the county, their grip on power has been slipping.  No Republican presidential candidate has won Delco since 1988, and numerous Democratic state legislators now represent districts long-held by the GOP. But perhaps most telling, in 2010 --- the largest Republican wave since 1946 --- both Governor Tom Cornett and U.S. Senator Pat Toomey lost the county.

Yet Pat Meehan won by ten points.

Meehan’s impressive showing was bolstered by the Republican tidal wave and the fact that it was an open seat, since former Congressman Joe Sestak ran for U.S. Senate.  That substantial victory has provided him a solid foundation to launch his re-election bid. 

But to stay in office, he will have to wage an aggressive campaign, taking nothing for granted. Unlike last year, he now owns a voting record. And when it comes to Congress, Seventh District voters have an independent streak that defies conventional political wisdom. 

In the 70’s and 80’s, the Seventh was represented by Bob Edgar, arguably to the Left of Mao and universally recognized as the most liberal member of Congress.  After giving up the seat to (unsuccessfully) run for U.S. Senate, Edgar was replaced by the generally-conservative Republican Curt Weldon. But in the Democratic wave of 2006, he lost to Sestak, a former Navy Admiral who, like Edgar, was unabashedly liberal.

Understanding the volatile electorate, the District’s wild fluctuations of the past, and sensing that the seat is not as safe as last year’s election results would indicate, the national Republican Campaign Congressional Committee has “enrolled” Meehan in its Patriot Program.  An effort designed to assist mostly freshmen, the program targets the top ten GOP legislators whose perceived vulnerabilities will likely lead to tough reelection fights.

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Stollsteimer has been actively courted not just by local leaders but the national Democratic Campaign Congressional Committee. To take on Meehan, though, he must first secure the Democratic Party’s nomination.  To that end, his plan is to aggressively work the committee to earn its endorsement, hopefully avoiding an expensive, and potentially bruising, primary fight. He has already made inroads, having secured the backing of several highly influential Democrats within the Party hierarchy.

"Jack would be a great candidate if he decides to run, with a strong profile and reputation for independence and integrity, that has attracted the attention of the national Democratic Party," a Party leader in the district told “Freindly Fire.”

That official requested anonymity, though, as the path has not yet been smoothly paved for Stollsteimer --- or any other potential candidate.  And that’s because there is an 800 pound gorilla hovering in the wings who could change the dynamics of the race at a moment’s notice --- for both the primary and general elections.

And in typical fashion, that individual is playing it coy, not announcing his intentions whether to seek the Congressional seat --- which he happened to hold just seven months ago.

Joe Sestak is the ultimate wild card, an independent Democrat who has often clashed with Party powerbrokers and a person to whom the terms “conventional wisdom” and “predictability” simply do not apply.

He gave up what virtually every political analyst stated was a near-100 percent safe seat, to run as David against Goliath --- 30-year incumbent powerhouse Arlen Specter, whose war chest dwarfed that of Sestak. The political insiders not only didn’t give Sestak much of a chance --- he was trailing by more than 20 points just a few months out from the primary --- but did everything in their power to stop him. 

They attempted to talk him out of running, not just to keep the Congressional seat safe but to avoid a primary challenge to Specter.  When that didn’t work, there was the “Job Gate” offer, in which Sestak said the White House dangled a high-ranking position in exchange for his dropping out of the senate race. But that didn’t work, either.

Then the D’s took the gloves off, with prominent leaders, including then-Governor Rendell and the state Democratic Party chairman, openly attacking Sestak on numerous fronts.  They said he could not win a general election, and predicted a Sestak primary victory would be “cataclysmic” in the fall election.

And yet, despite the GOP wave, Sestak lost to Toomey by a mere two points.

Would Sestak present a viable candidacy to Meehan?  Absolutely.  The 2012 elections will be more favorable to Democrats, not just because a presidential year always brings out more voters, and political waves are never sustainable when they crest at such a high level, but because the “Republicans-are-destroying-our-Medicare” issue will undoubtedly gain traction.  Democrats are already pointing to their win in the recent New York special election as evidence, given that the seat was widely expected to remain in GOP hands.

But for the Democrats to be successful in the Seventh next year, they need to unify soon or risk losing good candidates.  Very few will be willing to put blood, sweat and tears into a campaign --- and they would have to open a committee very soon --- while the specter of a Sestak candidacy still looms.  And if Sestak declines to run, but announces that decision late in the game, precious time will have been wasted.

Sestak would most likely be able to establish a grassroots operation and generate significant fundraising relatively quickly, due to the national network gained from his senate run, but the same is not the case for other candidates. They would have to lay the groundwork, and that takes time and resources.  And many potential donors and campaign workers will stay on the sidelines, reluctant to commit to someone like Stollsteimer --- no matter how attractive a candidate he may be --- until Sestak makes up his mind. 

In an age where campaigns routinely begin over a year out from the election, any significant delay could prove a boon for the Meehan camp. Translation: the longer Joe Sestak remains noncommittal, the less likely the Democrats’ chances for success next November.

Will Sestak get back into the political fray?  If so, would it be for Congress, a position some think is not prominent enough for someone used to commanding a carrier-battle group --- especially when he would likely return to Washington in the minority? And why would Sestak still be touring Pennsylvania, meeting new Democrats statewide, if he intends to run in the relatively small Seventh District? 

It is never easy when it comes to predicting anything regarding Joe Sestak, and experience has shown that most “experts” are wrong anyway.

So the biggest question is the simplest one: at this point, does even Joe Sestak himself have any idea what he is going to do?  Whatever the answer, it’s in the best interest of his Party to make up his mind quickly.

Let the games begin.

Chris Freind is an independent columnist, television commentator, and investigative

reporter who operates his own news bureau, www.FreindlyFireZone.com

Readers of his column, “Freindly Fire,” hail from six continents, thirty countries

and all fifty states. His work has been referenced in numerous publications including

The Wall Street Journal, National Review Online, foreign newspapers, and in Dick

Morris' recent bestseller "Catastrophe."

Freind, whose column appears regularly in Philadelphia Magazine and nationally in

Newsmax, also serves as a frequent guest commentator on talk radio and state/national

television, most notably on FOX Philadelphia.  He can be reached at CF@FreindlyFireZone.com

GOP’s Chances To Unseat Bob Casey? Good Luck

You would think that with Pennsylvania’s Republican roots, which have run especially deep over the last several decades, freshman Democratic senator Bob Casey would be vulnerable in 2012. 

You would be wrong, and the reason is simple civics.  Incumbents don’t lose unless they’re challenged by viable, first-tier candidates, as the senate elections in Nevada and Alaska proved.  And, as of now, there are none to challenge Casey. Whether that changes in the next year is anyone’s guess, but the mere fact that the GOP finds itself in this position speaks volumes about how it builds its “bench.”  Translation:  it doesn’t.

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Pennsylvania’s Republican power was on full display when Ronald Reagan chose three cabinet officials not just from the same state, but the same county! Montgomery County produced Drew Lewis (who fired the striking air traffic controllers), Alexander Haig, and Richard Schweiker.  Since then, it’s been all downhill for the Montco GOP, with infighting and strife resulting in minority status in the state’s third largest county.

In 1994, Pennsylvania could boast that it was the most Republican state in the nation.  The GOP controlled the two U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, both chambers of the state legislature, all the statewide row offices, and a majority in the congressional delegation.  But the Party lost its way, and, by running untenable candidates, gave up huge chunks of the political landscape--- all reasons the state hasn’t voted Republican in a presidential election in what will be, at the minimum, a quarter-century.

In a resurgence that culminated last month, however, the Keystone State was one of the epicenters of the GOP political wave.  Five congressional seats flipped, Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett became Governor by trouncing Democrat Dan Onorato by ten points, the state senate stayed firmly Republican, and the State House, which had been Democratic, saw an almost incomprehensible thirteen seats move to the GOP, giving them a ten-seat majority.

And yet, with all that momentum, there is no first-tier, “go-to” frontrunner candidate to challenge Casey.

Why?  Because much more often than not, the GOP has chosen its candidates not on merit --- as in, who can best defeat the Democratic opponent ---, but instead, on whose “turn” it is.  In the mold of choosing Bob Dole and John McCain, Pennsylvania’s nominees may look great to Party insiders, but fare dismally when put before the voters.  Just look at the last several elections for governor, treasurer and auditor general.

And because there has been little effort to groom candidates for the future, and absolutely no effort to stop the hemorrhaging from Philadelphia, where Republican statewide candidates routinely face half-a-million vote deficits, the Party is now in the strange position of sitting on massive gains, but potentially passing on the Casey seat.

The subject of that race was one of the hot topics discussed at last weekend’s Pennsylvania Society gathering in New York, the annual event in which the state’s premier political and business elite exchange thoughts, predictions and gossip, most of which has no basis in reality.

To cut through the insider-speak, Freindly Fire turned to longtime Pennsylvania political observer Michael O’Connell for his thoughts on how the GOP got itself into its current position, and what it could do to be viable in 2012 --- when there will be races for U.S. Senate, Attorney General (which has never been held by a Democrat), State Treasurer, and Auditor General (an open seat).

“Pennsylvania Republicans are at a generational turnover, just as they were in the late seventies.  There is scarcely any bench of obvious statewide candidates, although there are any number of talented Republicans holding office.  The next several years will see more than a few of them try to make the always difficult transition from the General Assembly or local office to the big time.”

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Depending on the speed and efficiency of GOP Party-building efforts, made infinitely easier after the recent gains, several quality candidates may arise from the ranks, but currently, the field is weak, and the list short.  Following is a brief analysis:

First-tier:  None.

Second-tier: Congressman Jim Gerlach, who has defied the odds by winning in the Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008.  But Gerlach will be under pressure to not vacate the seat, as 2012 will be a tougher year for the GOP.  And given that he is now back in the Majority, how realistic is it that Gerlach will leave an almost-sure thing for a difficult race in which the odds are not in his favor?  Slim.

Third-tier: State Senators Jake Corman and Kim Ward.  Both are well-respected legislators, but are completely unknown outside their districts.  Given that neither represents a large population center, they would have to show a remarkable ability to raise money in order to increase name recognition statewide --- not an easy task, since federal rules limit contributions to $2400, a far cry from the state level where there is no limit.

 "Both are prototypes of what I mentioned,” O’Connell stated. “Talented players in offices largely out of the public eye, who will have to demonstrate that they can move on to a brutally difficult statewide contest.  There is no training school for that--it is a credential one only earns by running and winning a race."

Often-mentioned but no virtually chance: Congressman Charlie Dent.  Dent was reelected by a wide margin, and will clearly enjoy serving in the Majority, which is exactly where he’ll stay for one simple reason: he is pro-abortion, and in Pennsylvania Republican primaries, that’s a killer.  The only remote shot Dent would have is to be part of a five or six candidate field, with all his opponents splitting the Pro-Life vote.  Otherwise, he’s not going anywhere.

There are wildcards, to be sure. Former congressmen Phil English and Melissa Hart, while neither has publicly expressed intent, would match up well with Casey.  Both of these seasoned pols hail from western Pennsylvania (compared to Casey’s northeast base) and both served effectively in Democratic-leaning districts, though they lost tough races in the Democratic waves of 2008 and 2006, respectively.  But don’t count on either one taking up the challenge.

Interestingly, perhaps the candidate with the best chance for victory would be a self-funding businessman. Instead of carrying the baggage of an easily-distorted voting record, a charismatic business leader could engage the voters with the only record anyone really cares about: how many jobs he created, how his budgets were managed, and the innovative solutions he implemented to solve problems in the face of economic adversity. 

Since more and more people think government should be run like a business, operating within the same constraints as the private sector, such a platform could prove endearing. And while there are the pitfalls of self-financing (he’s “buying” the election), the alternative is far more appealing: he’s beholden to no one, especially the special interests.

An individual who fits that description is John Moran of Moran Logistics, who continues to create jobs due to his involvement in the booming Marcellus Shale natural gas industry.  While Moran recently stated he was not in the running (after his name was anonymously floated), the significant buzz created over just a few days demonstrated two things: the appealing nature of the no-nonsense businessman candidate, and the almost complete lack of a traditional candidate bench.

Both parties should recognize that their Business-As-Usual approach to selecting candidates needs an overhaul, especially given the fiscal calamity in which we find our nation and state.

For the Republicans at least, that model may well be to run law-and-order candidates with a proven track record of rooting out corruption and taking the tough stands, regardless of the political fallout. 

The results speak for themselves: New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a ever-rising national star, is a former United States Attorney, as are newly elected congressmen Pat Meehan of Delaware County (who won by 11 points) and Tom Marino of northeast Pennsylvania (ten-point margin), who unseated a well-funded and popular incumbent.  Montgomery County State Representative-elect Todd Stephens, a former Assistant District Attorney, took down entrenched incumbent Rick Taylor, and of course, state Attorney General Tom Corbett, who successfully prosecuted many powerful Harrisburg insiders, ruled the day.

Of note was the fate of John Perzel, longtime Philadelphia State Representative and former uber-Speaker of the House, who was the only Republican to lose in the biggest GOP wave since 1946. Law of averages?  Bad luck?  Hardly.  Instead, his loss centered around the 82-count indictment he is facing --- a case brought about by Corbett.

The message is clear.  Voters know they stand on the precipice, and feel the candidates best suited to clean up the political mess are not the ones whose “turn” it is, but those who have demonstrated the ability to create jobs and put bad guys in jail.

The path has been blazed.  The question is: can the Republican hierarchy finally read the road sign to success?  

Chris Freind is an independent columnist, television commentator, and investigative reporter who operates his own news bureau, www.FreindlyFireZone.com
Readers of his column, “Freindly Fire,” hail from six continents, thirty countries and all fifty states. His work has been referenced in numerous publications including The Wall Street Journal, National Review Online, foreign newspapers, and in Dick Morris' recent bestseller "Catastrophe."
Freind, whose column appears nationally in Newsmax, also serves as a guest commentator on Philadelphia-area talk radio shows, and makes numerous other television and radio appearances, most notably on FOX.  He can be reached at CF@FreindlyFireZone.com